A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.

The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse

From the article:

“The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari.”

Also:

“We are almost guaranteed” five hellish years, Turchin predicts, and likely a decade or more. 

It is a fascinating article. See also this blog post.

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