Category Archives: Hurricanes & Cyclones

Is battery backup a viable option in a grid failure?

Several chapters in The Doomsday Book talk about power grid failures, because there are multiple ways for the grid to fail, including:

  • Coronal Mass Ejections
  • Terrorist attacks
  • EMP attacks by foreign countries
  • Bad weather, like hurricanes

Hardening the grid against these problems can limit the duration of grid failures, but we will probably never have a grid with 100% uptime. I have personally been in a grid failure, caused by a hurricane, that lasted a week, and one caused by an ice storm that lasted several days.

What are the options for people when the grid fails. It is possible, with enough money, to create a whole-house backup system that can provide power for a long time. A large generator running on natural gas or propane can do it. So can a big battery bank with a large solar array.

The problem is that whole-house can mean a lot of power. Things like air conditioning, deep well pumps, electric hot water heaters, refrigerators, freezers, and electric car recharging require lots of power. You might need a 20 kw generator to handle the entire load of a typical suburban home. A battery bank need 100 kilowatt-hours of capacity plus a huge inverter to handle the full load of a house for any reasonable period of time. Both options get expensive.

This is why the book advocates a much smaller approach, understanding that if the goal is to provide only the essentials, the equipment needs are radically smaller and therefore affordable. For example, Keeping an internet modem plus router up, along with the ability to recharge devices like laptops and phones, takes relatively little power. Building a backup system to supply just these needs costs a few hundred dollars. The size of the battery is a few kilowatt hours and the inverter is small. A single solar panel could extend the duration significantly, perhaps indefinitely. At this low price point, every home or apartment could have this facility and then, in the case of a power grid failure, everyone would be able to communicate and use the internet.

This article talks about some of the issues with trying to build a whole-house system, rather than a small targeted system for backup power:

The Myth of Whole-Home Battery Backup

Lots of insights in here about backup power.

The Doomsday Book” by Marshall Brain lays out this scenario in amazing detail and offers solutions to prevent this doomsday scenario from unfolding. You can order the book today on Amazon and other retailers.

Climate Change will force human migration in 3 ways: Flooding, drought and heat

There are three big things that will force human beings out of one area and into another:

  • Flooding – Climate change can cause flooding either by raising sea levels or increasing rains (e.g. hurricanes)
  • Drought – Climate change causes areas that once received rain to dry up. Rainforest collapse is the most dramatic example, but simple rainfall pattern change is another.
  • Heat – As the planet warms, equatorial regions will eventually become so hot that humans can no longer tolerate or work in the heat.

All three of these effects will cause climate migration, by millions and millions of people. The people who are migrating will have no choice, because the alternative is death.

Take a country like Bangladesh. Much of Bangladesh is highly susceptible to sea level rise, and much of Bangladesh is hot and humid, so rising temperatures will eventually make it virtually uninhabitable. 160 million people live in Bangladesh, and most are in poverty already. Given this, the headline is probably understating things:

Climate change could create 63 million migrants in South Asia by 2050

The growing impacts of climate change have already pushed more than 18 million people to migrate within South Asian countries, but that could more than triple in three decades if global warming continues on its current path, researchers warned on Friday. Nearly 63 million people could be forced from their homes by 2050 in the region as rising seas and rivers swallow villages, and drought-hit land no longer supports crops, said ActionAid International and Climate Action Network South Asia in a report. The projection does not include those who will be forced to flee sudden disasters such as floods and cyclones and so is likely an under-estimate, noted Harjeet Singh, global climate lead at ActionAid. He said the situation could become “catastrophic”.

The obvious solution is to try to limit the damage that climate change causes by:

  1. Stopping the combustion of all fossil fuels
  2. Pulling carbon dioxide back out of the atmosphere

Unfortunately, there are many economic forces and powers that want to move in the opposite direction:

‘Grossly Insufficient’: ExxonMobil Lambasted Over Emissions Reduction Plan That Pledges No Reduction in Absolute Emissions

ExxonMobil’s Monday announcement of new targets for addressing greenhouse gas emissions was met with derision by climate advocates who called the plan “too little, too late.”

There is something Exxon could do to help migitgate the problems it has created. Exxon could develop and sell a carbon neutral gasoline substitute. In this way, all of the existing pipelines and gas stations and vehicles could still operate, while not adding any more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Using solar, wind or nuclear power, there is definitely a pathway toward achieving this. For example, the U.S. Navy has demonstrated how to make jet fuel out of seawater.

What If We Powered the Planet With Seawater?
How Big Can Wind Turbines Get?

There are several other approaches that can make synthetic gasoline as well. Exxon (and other oil companies need to scale them up and sell synthetic gasoline instead of fossil fuel gasoline.

Then humanity needs to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere at a massive scale:

Carbon Engineering | Direct Air Capture Technology

The Doomsday Book” by Marshall Brain lays out this scenario in amazing detail and offers solutions to prevent this doomsday scenario from unfolding. You can order the book today on Amazon and other retailers.

Humans continue burning fossil fuels despite the obvious stupidity of doing so

Such a depressing headline:

World is ‘doubling down’ on fossil fuels despite climate crisis – Production must fall by 6% a year to avoid ‘severe climate disruption’ but Covid-19 funding is supporting increases

The world’s governments are “doubling down” on fossil fuels despite the urgent need for cuts in carbon emissions to tackle the climate crisis, a report by the UN and partners has found. The researchers say production of coal, oil and gas must fall by 6% a year until 2030 to keep global heating under the 1.5C target agreed in the Paris accord and avoid “severe climate disruption”. But nations are planning production increases of 2% a year and G20 countries are giving 50% more coronavirus recovery funding to fossil fuels than to clean energy.

The headline, however, is not nearly strong enough. The reality is that fossil fuel burning should be reduced to zero immediately, and humanity must start sucking excess CO2 back out of the atmosphere. Otherwise the planet faces an unstoppable cascade of catastrophic effects including:

As discussed in the book, humanity somehow needs to transform its thinking to a wartime posture against climate in order to prevent all of these cataclysms from occurring. If we do not take immediate action, the prospects are dire.

The Doomsday Book” by Marshall Brain lays out this scenario in amazing detail and offers solutions to prevent this doomsday scenario from unfolding. You can order the book today on Amazon and other retailers.

Our young are terrified by climate change

The headline is “Our young are terrified by climate change” and they have every reason to be. “Climate change” is not just one thing. As the climate changes due to the combustion of fossil fuels, many different things happen including:

Our young are terrified by climate change

From the article:

“I often ask people to describe how they feel about their future given the specter of climate change, using just one word. The words I hear are painful — “fearful,” “concerned,” “terrified,” “frightened,” “hopeless” and — the most painful — “black”from a 20-something. The words I hear are not unusual — over half of U.S. teens feel afraid or angry. And I have also heard apathy — no one cares. Most of those I ask are college students with their life aheadAsk someone younger for their one word. Start with your children or grandchildren. Their word may frighten you.”

They have every reason to feel terrified and hopeless. This is an incredible doomsday scenario barreling down the tracks toward us, and humanity appears to be doing nothing concrete to stop it.

The Doomsday Book” by Marshall Brain lays out this scenario in amazing detail and offers solutions to prevent this doomsday scenario from unfolding. You can order the book today on Amazon and other retailers.

Hurricane frequency and damage are becoming epic as Global Warming provides the fuel

Hurricanes cross the Atlantic ocean and gather their energy + water from warm ocean waters. So it makes sense that global warning will increase hurricane strength as oceans warm up.

Now we start to see the doomsday scenario unfold. This year the Atlantic ocean spawned the most hurricanes ever:

Subtropical Storm Theta Makes 2020 Busiest Hurricane Season On Record

“Monday, Subtropical Storm Theta became the 29th named storm of the year, surpassing the 28 storms of 2005 and making the 2020 hurricane season the busiest on record.”

With so many hurricanes in play, it is inevetable that they start overlapping their destructive paths, so we get situations like this:

‘Nothing Left’: How Back-to-Back Hurricanes Gutted a U.S. Town

What’s happened to Cameron is a taste of what may be coming for other towns along the Gulf Coast as climate change takes hold. Warmer Gulf water and moister air are the kindling for tropical cyclones, helping to make them more ferocious. The 2020 hurricane season isn’t over, and it’s already produced 25 named storms. That’s the most since 2005, when Hurricane Katrina all but drowned New Orleans. At least seven hurricanes have struck Southwestern Louisiana in the last 20 years, twice as many as the previous two decades.

The problem is that it is likely to get worse rather than better unless drastic action on global warming and climate change takes place on a global level. Humans need to completely stop emitting carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and start extracting CO2 back out of the atmosphere. Humans may need to consider geoengineering techniques. And more.

The Doomsday Book” by Marshall Brain lays out this scenario in amazing detail and offers solutions to prevent this doomsday scenario from unfolding. You can order the book today on Amazon and other retailers.

No Question that Natural Disasters are getting worse due to Climate Change

This article contains a remarkable figure showing that the number of natural disasters (things like hurricanes, flooding, drought, etc.) have nearly doubled over the last 20 years.

UN warns that world risks becoming ‘uninhabitable hell’ for millions unless leaders take climate action

There has been a “staggering” rise in natural disasters over the past 20 years and the climate crisis is to blame, the United Nations said Monday.Researchers pointed to a failure of political and business leaders to take meaningful action to mitigate the impact of climatic changeand stop the planet from turning into “an uninhabitable hell for millions of people.”

Not mentioned in the article is the possibility that the earth’s entire equatorial region, and other regions like Bangledesh and even the Southern United States, could warm so much that they become uninhabitable for parts of the year. If temperatures increase enough, particularly in areas of high humidity, it may be impossible for people to go outside without overheating. From the same article:

Currently, the world is on course for a temperature increase of 3.2 degrees Celsius or more, unless industrialized nations can drastically cut their greenhouse gas emissions.

The time for a global, high-intensity, concerted effort to solve the global climate crisis is now.

More info:

Are All These Natural Disasters Normal? | The New York Times
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBjy6sPSATo
How Does Climate Change Affect Natural Disasters?

The Doomsday Book” by Marshall Brain lays out this scenario in amazing detail and offers solutions to prevent this doomsday scenario from unfolding. You can order the book today on Amazon and other retailers.